SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:2 Republican incumbents lose in Georgia House, but overall Democratic gains are limited

Follow live: Updates from AP’s coverage of the presidential election.

ATLANTA (AP) — Democrats toppled two Republican incumbents in the Georgia state House,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center but won’t narrow the Republican majority as much as they once hoped.

With four races still uncalled Wednesday, Republicans have 98 of the 180 House seats, while Democrats have 78. If all the candidates leading Wednesday win, Republicans would hold 100 seats and Democrats 80. But candidates in two of those races lead by fewer than 100 votes, meaning those elections could be headed to recounts.

Republicans held a 102-78 lead when voting began. GOP incumbents Mesha Mainor and Ken Vance lost to Democratic opponents, but Democratic efforts to unseat three more Republican incumbents in Atlanta’s northern suburbs were falling short. That’s a win for Republicans, who will avoid the headaches of a significantly smaller majority, and for Gov. Brian Kemp, whose political organization pumped $2 million into helping House GOP candidates.

It was the first election after a court ordered lawmakers to draw new lines to create more Black-majority districts. With Black voters strongly supporting Democrats, that created some Democratic opportunities in the House. But GOP mapmakers redrew Georgia’s 14 Congressional Districts and 56 state Senate districts, resulting in little meaningful partisan competition for those offices. The partisan balance in the state Senate remained at 33 Republicans and 23 Democrats, as it was before the election, after all incumbents won.

More election coverage Trump wins the White House in a political comeback rooted in appeals to frustrated voters   Election takeaways: Trump’s decisive victory in a deeply divided nation   Live updates: Trump’s reelection spurs soaring stock market  

“Senate Republicans finished the drill tonight,” said Senate President Pro Tem John Kennedy, a Macon Republican.

Democratic leaders admitted they couldn’t win a majority in the lower chamber of the General Assembly this year. But the minority party hoped to show progress toward a majority after Republicans held the line in 2022, as Kemp swept to reelection.

Democrats campaigned on overturning Georgia’s abortion restrictions, doing more to limit guns, and expanding the Medicaid program to more low-income adults. Republicans touted their support for low taxes, police and school vouchers.

“From historic tax cuts and investments in education to strengthening public safety, increasing access to healthcare and creating more opportunities to succeed, Georgia House Republicans continue to deliver results — and tonight’s results reflect that,” said House Speaker Jon Burns, a Newington Republican whose case for another term as leader was bolstered by the results. “We will continue working hard, expanding the tent of the Republican Party and addressing kitchen table issues that matter to families across the state.”

Ken Vance was a direct casualty of redistricting, after his Milledgeville-area House district was drawn into Macon and became majority Black. Democrat Floyd Griffin, a former state senator and mayor of Milledgeville, beat Vance.

Mainor, the other GOP incumbent who lost, had been elected as a Democrat but switched to the Republican Party over disagreements about school vouchers and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. She lost overwhelmingly to Democrat Bryce Berry, and had always faced an uphill climb in a central Atlanta district that is one of the most Democratic in the state.

One Democratic incumbent was narrowly trailing — another consequence of redistricting. Farooq Mughal of Dacula was behind Republican challenger Sandy Donatucci of Buford by fewer than 100 votes on Wednesday. The Associated Press has not declared a winner in that race. Republicans redrew Mughal’s district to make it more favorable to their party.

The 2024 election is here. This is what to know:

• The latest: Donald Trump is elected the 47th president of the United States in a remarkable political comeback.
  
• Election results: Know the latest race calls from AP as votes are counted across the U.S.
  
• AP VoteCast: See how AP journalists break down the numbers behind the election.
  
• Voto a voto: Sigue la cobertura de AP en español de las elecciones en EEUU.

News outlets globally count on the AP for accurate U.S. election results. Since 1848, the AP has been calling races up and down the ballot. Support us. Donate to the AP.

Republicans failed, though, in their effort to unseat Democratic state Rep Jasmine Clark of Lilburn.

Democrats had targeted Republican incumbents Scott Hilton of Peachtree Corners, Matt Reeves of Duluth and Deborah Silcox of Sandy Springs, centering arguments around abortion and guns. But Hilton and Reeves won, and Silcox was leading Democratic challenger Susie Greenberg Wednesday in an uncalled race.

Some Democrats outside the Atlanta area also had difficult nights, with Republican vote share surging in Georgia’s smaller cities and rural areas. Rep. Mack Jackson of Sandersville was fewer than 100 votes ahead of Republican Tracy Wheeler of Sparta on Wednesday in another uncalled race. Democrat Tangie Herring of Macon was a little farther ahead of Forsyth Republican Noah Harbuck in a middle Georgia district that was created during redistricting and had no incumbent. But that race also remained uncalled.

Herring and Jackson were both running in districts that have a narrow Black majority, and higher GOP vote totals imperiled Democrats. Like Herring and Jackson, longtime incumbent Patty Stinson of Butler had a close race in a rural Black majority district, although she won clear victory.

“Rural Georgia is what’s really turning out the votes for Republicans in Georgia,” Stinson said Wednesday. “As Democrats, we must start focusing more attention in rural Georgia.”