Indexbit-NFL head coach hot seat rankings: Ron Rivera, Mike McCarthy on notice entering 2023

The Indexbit2023 NFL season will commence with five new head coaches patrolling the sideline. It’s actually a fairly modest number given the typical HC turnover in the league year over year. In 2022, 10 teams made changes under the headset – though some for unexpected reasons (read: Jon Gruden and Bruce Arians). Since the end of the 2020 season, there have been 22 new hires or promotions league-wide.

And while it might seem premature – unfair even – to discuss a coach’s job security before Week 1 has even begun, the NFL is a win-(soon)-or-else proposition, and patience is most certainly not a commodity widely in stock. The Carolina Panthers’ Matt Rhule and Indianapolis Colts’ Frank Reich didn’t make it to the second half of last season, and the Denver Broncos canned Nathaniel Hackett before his inaugural go-round even wrapped.

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Coaches know they have little margin for error, and these seven could be running out of runway as the pressures of September and beyond begin to turn up the heat – their respective preseason temperatures ranked from uncomfortable to lightly simmering:

1. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Credit him for (usually) being the graceful, public-facing leader of a franchise that took NFL turmoil to new depths since Rivera’s hiring in 2020. Awful as the Commanders have been off the field in recent years, they've only been moderately successful at best on it under Rivera, who’s averaged 7.3 wins per season but did earn an NFC East crown (despite a 7-9 record) during his first campaign.

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Now, he’s rolling with an unproven quarterback (Sam Howell) – Rivera’s latest attempt to address a position he’s terribly mismanaged during his tenure – and working for an unproven owner (Josh Harris), a D.C.-area local eager to return the team to its glorious run in the 1980s. And the presence of new offensive coordinator – and potential successor – Eric Bieniemy already seems to have "Riverboat Ron" taking on water. Trying to make sufficient waves in what’s probably the conference’s toughest division only adds to Rivera’s burden of proof.

2. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

He was a wunderkind in 2020, finishing with an 11-5 regular-season mark, breaking the club’s 18-year playoff drought and winning its first postseason game in 26 years – albeit while sidelined by COVID-19 after Stefanski brilliantly navigated the challenges of the pandemic as a first-time HC. But it hasn’t gone as smoothly since, Cleveland sporting a disappointing 15-19 mark over the past two years, and QB Deshaun Watson and his fully guaranteed $230 million contract looking like a square peg in the round hole of Stefanski’s offense.

With Watson’s off-field issues resolved from a football standpoint, he and Stefanski should benefit from the continuity of a full offseason in a bid to make everything mesh. But it remains to be seen how a three-time Pro Bowler who prefers being in shotgun adapts to an attack that’s so often had four-time Pro Bowl RB Nick Chubb lined up deep in the base offense. If things go poorly in 2023, as the Browns try to navigate what’s arguably the most brutal division in the league, the dude acquired at the cost of three first-round draft picks is very unlikely to wind up as the fall guy.

3. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

America’s Team has shown incremental improvement during McCarthy’s three years, from QB Dak Prescott’s injury-aborted 2020 to a wild-card loss in 2021 – albeit one that reflected poorly on the team’s situational awareness – to a wild-card blowout win in Tampa and subsequent divisional-round defeat at San Francisco last season. However McCarthy has assumed play-calling duties this year – the first time he’ll run an offense since 2018 in Green Bay – and that pretty squarely puts the spotlight on him and Prescott, whose contract runs two more years, particularly given how stout the Dallas defense has been lately. (And it remains to be seen how McCarthy’s "I want to run the damn ball" mantra dovetails with a backfield that doesn’t have a proven bell cow following the dismissal of Ezekiel Elliott.)

Jerry Jones gave McCarthy a vote of confidence after his team succumbed to the 49ers in consecutive Januarys. However the club’s longtime owner is obviously eager to snap a Super Bowl drought that’s nearing three decades – and, with the exception of predecessor Jason Garrett, McCarthy is approaching the expiration date of most of Jones’ coaches. Dramas, whether of the TV or football variety, rarely eclipse "Dallas," so stay tuned.

4. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

The Bolts have gone 19-16 in his two seasons. Not bad … maybe until you explore the deeper context. Both years ended disastrously, the Chargers missing the postseason in 2021 after some of Staley’s often-bizarre game management decisions led to their demise in a can’t-lose Week 18 game at Las Vegas – and the Raiders appeared content to play for a tie that would’ve allowed both clubs to advance. Last season, LA secured a wild card but coughed up a 27-0 second-quarter lead at Jacksonville, ultimately succumbing 31-30 to the Jaguars.

This roster is stocked with elite players, and the offense could hit a higher gear in 2023 under new coordinator Kellen Moore. Yet Staley, who built his brand on defense – the Rams surrendered the fewest points and yards in the league in 2020 under his stewardship – hasn’t been able to get his arms around the Chargers D despite having Pro Bowlers at every level. It’s not easy being stuck in the same division with the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in his prime. But when you have QB Justin Herbert entering his own prime, with a crackling supporting cast at his back, hovering around .500 likely won’t be acceptable for long – especially with the Chargers poised to be Hollywood’s leading men with the Rams bottoming out.

5. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders

If he makes it through his second season with the Silver and Black, he’d eclipse his aborted term with the Broncos, which ended after 28 games midway through the 2010 season. This isn’t to suggest McDaniels, 47, is the same inexperienced but brash leader he was previously. But there’s no sidestepping the fact the Raiders were a 10-win playoff team after the 2021 season, when they overcame as much off-field adversity as any squad has in recent NFL memory, but regressed to 6-11 last season.

The organization’s handling of longtime QB Derek Carr’s demotion was clunky at best. Elsewhere on the star front, TE Darren Waller was traded less than a year after signing an extension; league rushing champ Josh Jacobs and the club were at contractual odds throughout the offseason; and All-Pro WR Davante Adams, who’s very close to Carr, expressed reservations about the team’s direction a year after his high-profile trade to Sin City. This isn’t to suggest all of these issues belong on McDaniels’ desk. But for an organization in the midst of yet another cultural shift, it’s worth noting the "Patriot Way" McDaniels was cocooned in for so long has never been successfully replicated elsewhere. And if players the caliber of Adams and Jacobs wind up seeking exits in the wake of Carr’s and Waller’s departures, it’s worth wondering if owner Mark Davis will have to hit the reset button sooner than expected.

6. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He belatedly replaced Arians during the 2022 offseason, and the team ultimately fell well short of expectations in what turned out to be QB Tom Brady’s turbulent swan song. A highly acclaimed defensive architect and previously the top dog for the New York Jets, Bowles has one winning season in five years as a HC, and the Bucs were blown out in his lone playoff appearance to cap last season.

Tampa Bay appears to be attempting an on-the-fly rebuild while paying off post-TB12 salary cap debt. But the Buccaneers could benefit from playing in one of the league’s weaker divisions and retain ample talent throughout the depth chart. Tempered expectations should give Bowles leeway, but the red flags might be evident beyond the team’s helmets if an outfit that just struggled to compete with Brady utterly disintegrates without him.

7. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Speaking of Brady … the Pats are 25-26 since his departure following the 2019 season, including a 30-point playoff loss at Buffalo to conclude the 2021 campaign. As for TB12’s successor, 2021 first-rounder Mac Jones, it’s hard to lay the blame for his regression last year anywhere but at Belichick’s feet after he clearly failed to put experienced offensive assistants in place to advance Jones’ development. The return of OC Bill O’Brien should put Jones back on track in fairly short order.

And yet the six-time Super Bowl champions – all those Lombardis won with Brady – find themselves in an unfamiliar AFC East reality, one that very much suggests New England now has the least-talented roster in the division. It may seem heretical to suggest BB is on a seat that’s anything but cozy, but it was noteworthy at the NFL’s annual meeting in March that owner Robert Kraft expressed disappointment that his team hasn’t won a playoff game since losing Brady. Meanwhile, Belichick, 71, uncharacteristically (and embarrassingly) referenced his track record when asked why the fan base should expect better results in 2023. And none other than longtime Patriots insider Tom Curran reported this offseason that Belichick’s status as the organization’s football emperor may no longer be on steady ground.

Nineteen wins shy of breaking Don Shula’s all-time record for coaching victories (347, including postseason), there seems to be growing uncertainty as to whether Belichick will overtake him … at least in Foxborough.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.